Formspring Question #412--Don't It Make My Blue State Red Edition

What blue state(s) do you think Romney can pick off in November?

The absolute most likely state is North Carolina. Barack Obama’s margin of victory in 2008 was 14,000 votes. Obama was going to lose North Carolina even before he repudiated the Tarheel State by declaring his support for gay marriage.

Indiana is a close second. Hoosiers were enthusiastic for Bob Dole back in 1996, for heaven’s sake! They will vote for any Republican candidate. Except John McCain, apparently.

Ohio is likely to revert back to a red state. I am cautiously optimistic about Virginia, but those blue-ish DC suburbs in the northern part of the state are loaded with self-loathing affluent progressives who feel obligated to guide the rest of the red state yokels whom they believe do not know any better. On a less snaky note, Gov. Bob McDonnell’s organization handed Mitt Romney the primary. It may put him over the in the commonwealth in November. McDonnell will noty be Romney’s running mate, but a Cabinet post is his for the taking.

New Hampshire likes socially moderate Republicans. Romney’s Massachusetts connections can deliver the state.

I would put Colorado and Florida in the maybe columns. Colorado depends on the enthusiasm of evangelicals. Rick Santorum won the state’s primary. We will have to see whether they can be as adamant about Romney. Florida is tough. I would not be surprised if Obama won it with a strong Latino turn out. But then again, all those wealthy snowbirds are likely Romney backers. Are seniors angry over Medicare cuts? I do not honestly know, but I am at this time predicting an Obama victory. Just a hunch.

Will there be any surprises? They would have to be completely unusual circumstances, like a backlash against Wisconsin Democrats for wasting time and resources allowing Romney to eke out a win. I doubt that will happen. Romney cannot win Massachusetts or Michigan, either.

For the record, my predictions give an electoral count of 276 for Obama and 262 for Romney. Something has to change within the next five months, or we are doomed.