Friday, April 20, 2012

Formspring Question #399--Senatorial Crystal Ball Edition

What about the senate? Do you think Republicans can take control? It would put them in a powerful position opposite Obama (I have no faith in a Romney victory).
Republicans currently hold 47 Senate seats. Assuming the various safe seats like Diane Feinstein’s and John Kyl’s will not change parties, there are eight toss up elections to watch. Two are republican. Six are democrat.

Republican

Scott Brown (MA)
Dean Heller (NV)

I predicted back in my annual New Year’s Eve predictions Brown would lose reelection. I still think that is a possibility. I have a hunch many voters in Massachusetts will vote straight Democrat. Then again, Elizabeth Warren does not appear all that popular. The idea of a partisan shift in Massachusetts towards more moderate candidates like Brown strikes me as absurd, so warren must be an incredibly obnoxious candidate. I am not an insider to Massachusetts politics, so I cannot say.

I confess I did not even know the name of the other senator from Nevada. He must be as exciting as a pet rock. We would have been elected in the 2006 wave of democrats, so he must have something going for him.

Democrat

Ben Nelson (NE)
Bill Nelson (FL)
Debbie Sabanow (MI)
Claire Catskill (MO)
Jon Tester (MT)
Opwn (VA)

I would think Nebraska is a likely pick up. Montana does not strike me as a friendly place for Democrats. Virginia, maybe. Somewhere in here, republicans have to pick up four eats three seats--there is an independent, Bernie Sanders--in order to win a majority. The party may squeak by with four pick ups. Keep in mind Maine is likely to go from Republican to a left-leaning Independent as Angus King likely will take susan Collins’ open seat.

Who is going to ask the 400th question?

No comments:

Post a Comment