Monday, March 12, 2012

Rick Santorum and a Brokered Convention

Rick Santorum has conceded he cannot win the nomination outright, therefore his winning strategy is to keep Mitt Romney from reaching the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the nomination and hope for a floor nomination. His plan is more sensible than the possible Newt Gingrich/Rick Perry alliance that will not likely emerge, but it is still far fetched.

Here are several points to consider.

One, the Republican party elites have been steadily falling in line behind Romney for quite some time now. While there is no a prominent part member like a strong former president--not a Grand Wizard, thank you very much, David Gregory--to twist arms in favor of Romney, Romney would still have the clear advantage in the unlikely event of a brokered convention. Remember the PUMA crowd who were supposed to be enormously angry Hillary Clinton lost the nomination to pull some convention shenanigans? They fell in line eventually.

Two, virtually no one is enthusiastic about any of the potential nominees. Potential candidates like Sarah Palin who have toyed with seeking the nomination in the event of a brokered convention have even less party backing than even the unpopular frontrunners. There is no hero who is going to ride to save the party’s presidential hopes. The nominee is still going to be the guy with the most delegates. That would be Romney.

Finally, the GOP will do anything to avoid a brokered convention. Not having a clear nominee by the time the convention rolls around would be a death blow delivering sign of weakness. There will almost certainly be a deal for Santorum to join the ticket as Romney’s running mate long before that event occurs. The only thing that could stand in the way is Santorum’s hypersensitivity. He make consider the veep slot to be an insult considering all he has won, but he would be wise to consider the proposition.

This is not to say Santorum is the ideal running mate for Romney. The former Massachusetts governor needs a solid conservative with a spirited personality from either the south or the Heartland and not an exposed nerve, once defeated big government senator from Pennsylvania, but hey…nothing else has gone right this election cycle? Why should luck turn around now?

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