Super Tuesday is going to be far less dramatic than conservatives have hoped. I highly doubt either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich is going to emerge as a powerhouse who can defeat mitt Romney for the nomination. There are ten contests today. While I have usually taken a shot at predicting the order of victory in each contest, only the winner is about all anyone can reasonably digest at this point. Here is my best guess at which candidate will win which contests:
Mitt Romney
Ohio
Virginia
Massachusetts
Vermont
Alaska
Idaho
Rick Santorum
Oklahoma
Tennessee
North Dakota
Newt Gingrich
Georgia
North Dakota could go either way. While Santorum has done well in the central United States, Romney has performed better in caucuses. A relatively small amount of delegates are proportionally rewarded, so why fret over winners and losers?
The drama over who will win ohio is overblown. Santorem, because of his poor campaign organization, will not get a third of the delegates even if he wins the states, so Romney could wind up with more delegates even if he does not win Ohio. Speculation over who will carry Ohio makes for interesting television news and not much else.
The end result is going to be Romney emerging as the inevitable nominee. The Republican party wants the nomination process over with in a hurry. Even some unexpected party stars like paul Ryan and Tom Coburn have recently thrown their support towards Romney. The stronger he looks, the more bigwigs and big donors are going to support his campaign. While I am confident Santorum and Gingrich will keep running until the money runs out, it is only a matter of time before it finally does.
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